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EV+ and bankroll management in sports betting

In order to become a successful sports bettor, all you need to do is to cover a relatively simple equation: you need to find a way to generate consistent EV+ (to get your money into the middle on EV+ situations) and you need to learn to manage your bankroll in such a manner as to facilitate the working of the EV+. Unfortunately, as simple as this course of action may seem, it is extremely difficult to put into practice. Some folks spend years tracking the lines and chasing the value. Even when one manages to get things right, there's nothing really glamorous about being a winner at sports betting, as a matter of fact, it feels a lot like losing.

Enough of the smalltalk though, let's see how you should set about attempting to solve the above "simple" equation. First step: secure EV+. You may not be aware of this, but square sports betting (just getting your money in on the team you think will win the match) carries negative EV. The reason is the following: the bookmaker's utmost goal is to balance the match-ups he offers and most of the time he succeeds, too. Balancing a game is about draining all value from both its sides, in order to get approximately the same number of bettors onto both sides. The reason is that on a balanced game, the bookie can pay out the winners with the losers' money and keep the juice (the juice is like the poker rake in onlinepoker). This way, the juice is basically risk-free money for the bookie. Of course, regardless of how good he is at what he does, the bookie may not always manage to balance every game. In extreme cases, he may decide to cover the square bets from his pockets, although there's quite a bit of risk involved in such a course of action, and risk is obviously not the bookie's friend.

Anyway, when he does not cover the square bets from his pockets, the bookiehas to move his lines in order to re-establish the balance, by making theslighted side of the bet look more attractive. When the bookie moves thelines, he induces undue value for one of the teams. This value is known asthe hidden value. The hidden value can turn an otherwise negative EVproposition into a positive EV one for you. As you can see, securing EV+ isnot exactly an easy undertaking: you need to be a good reverse handicapperfor it and you need to be adept at tracking the lines and understandingtheir movements. Even if you manage to secure EV+ it will be an extremelymarginal one due to the nature of the setup, so it's by far not the holygrail you may think it is.

It is entirely possible for a sharp sports bettor who knows how to exploitthe hidden value to go down as a long-term loser. The reason is poorbankroll management. Playing with positive EV presents no short-termguarantees whatsoever. It only means that you will walk away a winner overthe long-run. If you manage your bankroll poorly, it won't last long enoughto carry you into the territory where the effects of the positive EV arefelt.

Bankroll management is mostly about discipline. Most people get greedy whenthey're on winning streaks and they tend to chase their losses by bettingmore when they lose. Proper bankroll management is about strictly limitingthe amount you bet on every single match-up, regardless of your emotional state and the circumstances. Sign up for a poker rakeback deal at rakemeback.com if you plan on taking uponline poker. Rakeback will help you beat the poker rake, making it easierfor you to secure EV+.

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